THE AIRLINES AND THE INTERNET - PART 1

We all live in the age of the Internet - this is hardly the news of the week. Sometimes it seems as if we haven’t known any other reality, a reality where you had to go actually to a book store in order to buy a book, or open an atlas in order to see the geographical borders of Germany. But no, the Internet has been around for just over ten years, yet in that short period it revolutionized many aspects of our life.

This blog is not about the Internet or the technology revolution; it is about commercial aviation. But like many other fields of life and the economy, the airline industry have gone through many changes in this age of information technology, and the question is: how successful are the airlines in managing themselves with respect to the Internet environment?

Come to think about it, there are very few products that can be suitable for on-line commerce more than airline tickets. Basically, an airline ticket is a piece of paper that can be sent to the customer via e-mail, or, in the worst case, inside a regular envelope in the mail. There are no special delivery expenses, and there is no danger of the product being damaged in the way. Secondly, even before the Internet, finding a specific airline ticket was being done by a computer system, except in front of the computer sat a travel agent, and the search was something only he or she could do, and not every person in its own home. Unlike shopping for other products, while shopping for airline ticket the customer don’t need to watch the item he wants to by or to feel it in his or her hands. All you need to know is the itinerary and the price, and if those two fits you - buy (or reserve).

I can keep on mentioning dozens of other points that illustrate why airline tickets are one of the most suitable products for on-line purchasing, but I think the case have been made. By now, 2008, you would have thought that the airline industry is way past the point of learning the advantages of e-commerce, and most airlines engage in selling their products according to the following principles:

* On-line ticket costs less than a regular ticket, due to less expenses;

* Search mechanisms for fares and itineraries are simple, fast and efficient, like other search systems in the web;

* purchase transactions are simple and transparent, like with other products bought on the net;

* There is a possibility of reserving tickets before buying them, just like in travel agencies.

Well, the reality is that those principles are not being met by most airlines. It goes without saying that there is no technology barrier that prevents the airlines from achieving better performance in e-commerce, so all we can do is wonder why.

THE A380 DELIVERY DELAYS - A BOEING RERUN

As I was estimating in my October 15, 2007 post, the first customer of the all new Boeing 787 will not celebrate the delivery of its new prize plane in 2008, despite Boeing’s promises a few days earlier. Yesterday, January 16, 2008, the manufacturer’s top executives had to deliver the unpleasant news that the 787 program have yet another set of delays.

My prediction this time: even if the first flight will take place in 2008, All Nippon Airways is not going to see its first plane in 2009.

It’s the A380 story all over again…

THE U.S. AIRLINE CHAOS - PART 4

The Boeing 777

The headline of this entry is about the chaos in the U.S. commercial aviation arena, but that’s only because it’s a part of a series of entries I have been writing about my latest trip to the U.S., in December. In this post I’d like to talk about the plane I flew in for both my trans-Atlantic flights, the Boeing 777.

I did not discover the 777 suddenly in that latest journey. First of all, I flew on board the 777 back in ‘04, LHR-EWR. Secondly, last July, when all of the attention was focused on the new 787, I dedicated a special post to the 777, saying basically that although this plane wasn’t announced “revolutionary” at birth, it is in fact not less important than its younger brother, and maybe even more.

The 777 is the best plane for long haul flights of our time. Period. It can deliver some 300 passengers, non-stop, in 12, 15 and even 17 hours flights, using only two engines. The 777-300 can deliver as much as 350 passengers in such long routes. From the airline point of view there is no better plane for those long haul routes, which explains why carriers like Singapore Airlines, Emirates, British Airways and Air France establish their fleets on this plane. It also explains why airlines with Airbus A340-based long haul fleets, like Air Canada and Qatar Airways have decided to switch to a 777-based long haul fleet.

But what about the passenger point of view? Of course, the cramped economy seat is the same in any wide body, be it the 767, the 777, the A330 or the A340. I flew on board all of those planes, and there is not much different when you sit in your place. Despite that I would like to point out that the 777 has quite a room next to the lavatories, which enable you to stand comfortably for several periods of the flight (an important thing on long haul). In general, the 777 is relatively roomy and stable at flight, considering that the airlines do as much as they can to load it with the highest number of passengers possible.

Just like the 777 practically eliminated the 747, the biggest threat it faces in the next few years comes from the 787. If the 787 could fly some 300 passengers in long routes, burning less fuel (as promised by Boeing), it can make the 777 obsolete. It will be interesting to watch.

THE U.S. AIRLINES CHAOS - PART 3

Continental Airlines

All of my flights to, in and from the U.S. were with Continental Airlines. CO is one of two U.S. airlines which operate non-stop routes between the U.S and Israel, along side El Al. The second airline is Delta, which started an ATL-TLV route back in March 2006, and is starting a JFK-TLV line in March 2008. The Newark-Tel Aviv route is considered one of the most successful routes of CO, proved by the fact that it operates two daily flights, both on board its largest plane, the 777.

The type of plane was one of the factors I considered when deciding which airline to fly with. CO is one of only two U.S. airlines that have not passed through bankruptcy in the last few years (the other one is American Airlines). It has a fairly young fleet of planes, and a large order of new Boeing 787 in the books. But apart from that, CO is no different from most U.S. or international airlines. The one thing that I can mention as above the average for a U.S. airline is that in the flights from Newark to Miami and back (some 2.5-3 hours long) we were being served with a small sandwich, a bag of chips and a candy bar. I remember a year ago, flying with AA from Los Angeles to New York for approximately 5 hours, we haven’t been served any kind of food, even not symbolic. So I can credit CO for that.

The important thing for me as an Istraeli traveler is that CO operates the 777 on the TLV route, with its large cabin and the personal video screens. This plane is sure to make a very long flight a bearable one. I will pay some more credit to the 777 in a separate post.

THE U.S. AIRLINES CHAOS - PART 2

DELAYS…DELAYS…AND MORE DELAYS

I booked my December 2007 travel with CO way back in August. All of my flights were regular scheduled flights. Here are the time performance data of those flights:

* Flight no. 85, TLV-EWR, Dec. 3; scheduled take off 11:15; actual take off 12:40; reason: plane take off from EWR to TLV delayed.

* Flight no. 238, EWR-MIA, Dec. 4; scheduled take off 10:40; actual take off 11:05; reason: unknown.

* Flight no. 539, MIA-EWR, Dec. 11; scheduled take off 15:55; actual take off 17:07; reason: NY area air traffic congestion.

* Flight no. 90, EWR-TLV, Dec. 11; scheduled take off 22:50; actual take off 23:20; reason: unknown.

This record is surprising and predicted at the same time. As I have written in the last blog entry, at the time of the booking I was well aware of the big delays problem in the American travel system, and that has brought me to several decisions concerning my desired timetable. First, I was scheduled to land at EWR late Monday afternoon. If I were to book a connecting flight to MIA that evening, there may have been a chance that I will miss it if the flight from TLV landed behind its time, which it did. So I preferred to book my flight to MIA for the next day LATE morning hours, and spend the night in an airport hotel. Driving with me in the hotel shuttle were scores of passengers with hotel vouchers from CO, due to flight cancellations…

Another decision I made dealt with the flight back home: I could have taken a morning flight from MIA to EWR, then take the afternoon flight to TLV, landing Wednesday morning. Instead I booked an afternoon flight from MIA, and a night flight from EWR, making me a lot of room in between, which has proved very wise due to the 70 minutes delay in MIA.

It’s worth mentioning that another CO flight from MIA to EWR the same day (no. 439) that was scheduled to take off at 14:40, took off just minutes before my flight, at 17:02…

So that’s why those delays were predictable. At the same time, I found myself surprised that not even ONE of the flight took of on time, because, generally speaking, there were no negative collateral conditions. Let’s start with the weather: In TLV and In MIA the weather conditions were ideal. In EWR, both in December 4 and December 11 there was some rain, but nothing more than that (there may have been a snow storm a couple of days after). Nothing in the weather could justify any delay.

There were no airport congestion, either. I spent many hours at each of the three airport, and most of the time they were half empty. The reason is, of course, that I planned my travel to take place between Thanksgiving and Christmas, in order to avoid the travel frenzy of the holidays. And indeed that what happened, as I enjoyed uncrowded airports, hotels and parking lots… except for airline delays.

If only I could blame all of this on the specific airline I flew with. The sad truth is that this kind of performance is shared by all U.S. airlines and has become the plague of the industry, as anybody who tracks the issue in the papers and in the web fully knows. So we are only left with one alternative, which is to plan our trips in advance according to this knowledge, and pray that the only delays will be as minor as those.

THE U.S. AIRLINES CHAOS - PART 1

In December of 2006, exactly one year ago, a severe weather system over the central part of the U.S. caused American Airlines to divert flights from its Dallas hub to Austin airport. Some of those flights did not deboard their passengers in Austin, waiting for the weather to clear so they can take off to Dallas. The result was very bad: some planes stayed on the taxiway for as long as 8 hours, with their passengers stranded in, with no food or drink, lavatories in a horrible condition, babies screaming and so on.

This negative experience inspired one of the stranded passengers, Kate Hanni, to start a public movement to create a passenger’s bill of rights, which will impose on the airlines basic rules of service, among them a limit on the time they can hold passengers on a standing plane.

One year after, we still do not have a passenger’s bill of rights, but it seems that the subject of the American commercial aviation industry have become one of the main news makers since the Austin incident. Things have gotten so bad, that no other than the President of the United States addressed the issue twice publicly in the last few months, promising to do what ever its administration can in order to improve the situation for the American traveler. Stories about the woes of travel (especially domestic travel) appear on a daily basis in cable TV news, in papers and on the Internet. The general message is clear: air travel in the U.S. does not work well; service is bad; delays are common; this should be fixed.

For the last couple of weeks I had the opportunity to experience the situation personally, when I traveled from Tel Aviv to Miami, via Newark , and back. I flew with a U.S.-based airline, Continental, so my itinerary included both international and domestic flights.

My general conclusion is not positive. The state of American air travel is grim.

Wanting to travel from TLV to MIA, I had many alternatives. There is the non-stop El Al flight, which operate 3 times a week; there are several flight options with European airlines - British Airways, Swiss, Iberia, Lufthansa, Air France - with connections at European hubs; and there are two options of flying with U.S. carriers: Delta via Atlanta and Continental via Newark. After thorough consideration, I chose to fly with Continental.

Although this was my first flight with CO, I assumed there aren’t many differences between this carrier and other U.S. carriers that I have traveled with over the last few years in both international and domestic routes such as American Airlines, Delta and Air Tran. My assumption was generally right, and the few differences were to CO advantage.

For the next few entries of this blog I will post some of my observations on this travel with CO, and try to explain my negative conclusion.

BAD NEWS FROM THE U.K.

In the course of only two days I have seen several negative news pieces coming from Britain, concerning air travel. This is especially important, because Britain is one of the most traveled destinations in the world, and its airline industry is known to be in the forefront of the global industry.

First, the hubris of British Airways.

Yesterday we learned that BA has been flying empty airliners on trans-Atlantic routes, because of “shortage in cabin crew employees”. The media coverage emphasized the environmental damage being done by a B747 flying across the ocean, but I think there are many more issues in this story. How can an airline like BA, perhaps the most prestigious airline in the world, find itself in such a position (assuming that its statement is true) when it can not man some of its flights?

I’m afraid that the answer to that question is – hubris. BA thinks that from its high position in the airline industry it can get away with practically any kind of behavior. This conclusion is not based only on the empty flights episode. A few months ago BA was fined with hundreds of million of dollars by both the British and the American authorities because of antitrust activities – fixing flight fares with other airlines. That episode, too, have shown a kind of corporate policy that basically says: we are above all the others; the rules do not apply to us; we can do as we wish because we are the famous, rich and successful British Airways.

In other words, BA’s behavior is like the typical celebrity driving under the influence in the streets of Hollywood, thinking that if he or she got caught by the police, their sexiness and famousness will get them off the hook. As Paris Hilton recently learned, that is not always the case. BA should have known that, too, but apparently it still consider itself to be a special category.

The other bad news is about future travel procedures in the U.K. I think anyone who will read this news article can understand why I am considering it to be bad.

NEXT VACATION IN DUBAI?

It appears that for many years we have been living with a huge mistake: we thought that New York, London, Paris, Tokyo, San Francisco, Rome and other cities like these were the cultural capitals of the world and the main destinations for tourists from all over the globe.

Wrong.

Because when you read the recent news from the Dubai Air Show, you easily understand that the attractions of Doha and Dubai have taken the place of the Empire State Building, the Eiffel Tower and the Golden Gate Bridge.

How else can one explain the number of new airliners ordered by Dubai’s Emirates and by Doha’s Qatar Airways? I look at the figures and find it hard to believe: Emirates has 246 (!) planes on order, most of them wide body giants like B773 and A380. Now it has ordered 70 new A350. Qatar also has dozens of plane orders from Boeing and Airbus.

Both companies talk about the coming years in terms that make the congestion at JFK seem like a deserted glider air strip in the heart of the Australian Outback. And I just want to ask a little question: with all due respect for those two thriving cities, how on earth all those planes are going to be filled? What am I missing here?

A CONFUSING PICTURE

Looking at the world of commercial aviation these days can make you quite confused. On the one hand, every other day another airline publishes a new record high quarterly report, with positive figures that we could have only dreamt of a couple of years ago (and that includes U.S. airlines). On the other hand, soaring oil prices threaten to make part of air travel into a luxury commodity available only to the rich and the famous. What’s going on here?

Of course, the effect of high oil prices is yet to be seen, but the fundamental issue is already on the table of the international airline community: what to do with the fact that air travel is becoming more and more expensive? In the past decade, long before the current oil crises, the main trend in the airline industry was the rise of the “low cost” airlines. Brands like Ryanair, EasyJet, Air Tran and Tui Fly have become to be known almost as the old legacy ones, British or United. But today all the airlines face the same reality. Can the low cost airlines keep air travel as a popular service available to the masses? Or maybe at the end of the day the legacy airlines will surprise us by showing that all of those cruel economic steps that they have been taking in the past few years are paying off? Stay tuned.

BOEING AND THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY

Boeing’s announcement, a few days ago, on the postponement of the first 787 delivery from May 2008 to the end of that year is anything but surprising. What’s more natural in our days than a mega-project that can not meet its own declared dead-lines? Of course, the first example that comes to mind is the two year delay in the deliveries of the Airbus 380 – the first one is being delivered to Singapore Airlines today, October 15, 2007 – but the truth is that there are few if any examples of big projects that actually made their own schedules without any delays. Think of any such project, from every possible field: building airports and sea ports, building bridges, developing new technologies, constructing mass transportation systems, etc. the bottom line is that man kind have been developing in many aspects, but predicting a realistic schedule is not one of them.

And as for Boeing? My estimation is that the first 787 customer is not going to see it in 2008.